Rainmaker
Kalshi weather trading
v4.3 Historical
v4.4 Paper
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🔬 Strategy Evolution: v4.3 → v4.4
v4.3
Single-Source Strategy
• NWS forecast only
• Fixed position sizing ($2)
• 3σ confidence threshold
• Manual validation
v4.4
Multi-Source Consensus
• NWS + OpenWeather + VisualCrossing consensus
• Kelly criterion position sizing
• Dynamic probability estimates
• Automated validation with actual temps
v4.3 Win Rate
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v4.4 Win Rate
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v4.3 ROI
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v4.4 ROI
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Total P&L
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Win Rate
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ROI
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Total Trades
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Cumulative P&L
Win Rate by City
📍 City Performance
City
Trades
Win Rate
P&L
ROI
Best Source
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📋 Recent Trades
Date
City
Side
Price
Contracts
Forecast
Actual
P&L
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