Min EV 30c
Max Horizon 48h
ML XGBoost 0.94 AUC
Kelly 25%
NO cities HOU NOLA NYC MIA PHX
Pre-Floor (50%)
before 4/19
--
--
--
Post-Floor (70%)
since 4/19
--
--
--
Above bets
forecast above threshold
--
--
--
Below bets
forecast below threshold
--
--
--
Cumulative P&L
P&L by City
City Performance
| City |
W/L |
Win% |
P&L |
ROI |
Bias |
Probability Calibration — is the model honest about its own confidence?
| Predicted Prob |
N |
Predicted WR |
Actual WR |
Gap |
P&L |
Gap = actual − predicted. Green ≤2pp, yellow 2-5pp, red >5pp. Buckets with <3 trades shown but de-emphasized.
Recent Trades
| Date |
City |
Side |
Price |
Qty |
Forecast |
Actual |
Result |
P&L |